Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
